Jong Ajax 0-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host Roda at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Jong Ajax) versus 1.40 (Roda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against Jong Ajax's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 65% and Roda 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 63% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.41 xG and Roda 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.012 / defence 1.402 | Roda attack 0.760 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.899 / away 1.685. Roda's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Jong Ajax games / 44 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 30% | Draw 23% | Roda 47%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 2.13. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 70% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 30% | Draw 23% | Roda 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong Ajax 1.41 / Roda 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.012 / def 1.402 | Roda attack 0.760 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.899 / away 1.685 • Poisson stance: Roda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Roda xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Roda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Roda kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Jong Ajax 0 - 0 Roda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Roda part of?
Jong Ajax vs Roda is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 30% chance of winning, Roda a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong Ajax and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 4 | Roda 4W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 1.01x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
30%
3.30
23%
4.36
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.20
1.80
Roda xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
5%
19.90
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.80 for Roda, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 11W 9D 26L from 46 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 12L across 46 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Ajax heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 6W 5D 11L from 22 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 10W 8D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Roda in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 11W 9D 26L in their last 46 games (0.91 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 17D 12L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.05 PPG; Roda away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Ajax
5
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 1, Roda have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Jong Ajax 0-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Ajax at 64%, Roda at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Jong Ajax and 59% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Jong Ajax's games and 68% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jong Ajax's matches and 59% of Roda's.
Do Jong Ajax and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Roda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong Ajax's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax and Roda finished level at 0-0 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.41 xG and Roda 1.80 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Roda landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Roda attack 0.76 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 30% | Draw 23% | Roda 47%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 63%, Roda 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.