Jong Ajax 4-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark De Toekomst plays host to Jong Ajax versus Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 20 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Ajax have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark De Toekomst. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.00 for Jong PSV U21. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Jong Ajax are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong Ajax and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 58% and Jong PSV U21 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 63% | Jong PSV U21 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.24 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.889 / defence 0.730 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.832 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.358. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Jong Ajax games / 59 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 45% | Draw 31% | Jong PSV U21 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Jong PSV U21 4.17. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 30% | Jong PSV U21 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 45% | Draw 31% | Jong PSV U21 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Jong Ajax 1.24 / Jong PSV U21 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.889 / def 0.730 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.832 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Jong PSV U21 xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 January 2025 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong Ajax 4 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 45% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Ajax 3W | Draws 3 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21 in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (0.89) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.83x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.19
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.06
0.82
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 0.82 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 15W 16D 28L from 59 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 32L across 59 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.03 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 11W 8D 10L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 9W 4D 16L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.63 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 15W 16D 28L in their last 59 games (1.03 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 10D 32L in their last 59 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.41 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong Ajax
5
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 41%, Jong PSV U21 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Jong Ajax) and 66% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 34% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 55% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Jong Ajax's matches and 66% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Jong PSV U21 4-0 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.24 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.82 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.89 / defence 0.73 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 45% | Draw 31% | Jong PSV U21 24%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 63%, Jong PSV U21 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.03 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.