Jong Ajax 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 34%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's home record at Sportpark De Toekomst: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
De Graafschap have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. De Graafschap are 1.50 PPG clear of Jong Ajax in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong Ajax lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 56% and De Graafschap 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 62% | De Graafschap 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.08 xG and De Graafschap 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.686 / defence 0.756 | De Graafschap attack 1.007 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.392. Jong Ajax's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Jong Ajax games / 55 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 34% | Draw 33% | De Graafschap 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | De Graafschap 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Jong Ajax 40% | De Graafschap 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 34% | Draw 33% | De Graafschap 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Jong Ajax 1.08 / De Graafschap 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.686 / def 0.756 | De Graafschap attack 1.007 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.06
De Graafschap xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 9 December 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Jong Ajax 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 34% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jong Ajax and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Ajax 3W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.01x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.02
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.14
1.06
De Graafschap xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.06 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 13W 16D 26L from 55 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 17L across 55 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Ajax heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 9W 8D 10L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.87 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 13W 16D 26L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 27W 11D 17L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.30 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 4, De Graafschap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 41%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Jong Ajax and 74% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 67% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Jong Ajax's matches and 74% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Ajax and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.08 xG and De Graafschap 1.06 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.69 / defence 0.76 against De Graafschap attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 34% | Draw 33% | De Graafschap 33%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 62%, De Graafschap 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.