Heracles 3-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Jong PSV U21 at Erve Asito in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Heracles carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Heracles have won 1, Jong PSV U21 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 50% versus Jong PSV U21 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 57% | Jong PSV U21 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.72 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.366 / defence 0.916 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.047 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.298. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Heracles games / 72 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 69% | Draw 16% | Jong PSV U21 15%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | Jong PSV U21 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.72 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 69% | Draw 16% | Jong PSV U21 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 67% | xG Heracles 2.72 / Jong PSV U21 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.366 / def 0.916 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.047 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Heracles (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Jong PSV U21 xG
67%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Heracles 3 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 69% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Heracles and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Jong PSV U21?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are Heracles and Jong PSV U21 in?
Heracles (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Heracles's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.72. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
69%
1.46
16%
6.14
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.97
1.25
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.46
69%
Home win
6.14
16%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
7%
15.24
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
1%
100.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Heracles and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Heracles and 1.25 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 32W 11D 27L from 70 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 30L across 70 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.53 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 20W 8D 7L from 35 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 8W 10D 17L across 35 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.64 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 32W 11D 27L in their last 70 games (1.53 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 22W 18D 30L in their last 70 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Heracles's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.94 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Heracles or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Jong PSV U21 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Heracles
0
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Jong PSV U21?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when Heracles 3-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Jong PSV U21?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 54%, Jong PSV U21 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Heracles) and 57% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Heracles's games and 69% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Heracles's matches and 57% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Heracles and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Jong PSV U21 3-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.72 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.25 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.37 / defence 0.92 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 69% | Draw 16% | Jong PSV U21 15%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 57%, Jong PSV U21 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.53 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.