FC Volendam 3-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Telstar travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 11 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Telstar's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FC Volendam have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 2, Telstar 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Telstar trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 65% and Telstar 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 71% | Telstar 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.03 xG and Telstar 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.234 / defence 0.932 | Telstar attack 0.916 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.280. Data: 29 FC Volendam games / 67 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 59% | Draw 22% | Telstar 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Telstar 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Telstar 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 59% | Draw 22% | Telstar 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Volendam 2.03 / Telstar 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.234 / def 0.932 | Telstar attack 0.916 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Telstar xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Telstar kick off?
FC Volendam vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Telstar?
FC Volendam 3 - 0 Telstar.
Where is FC Volendam vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Telstar part of?
FC Volendam vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 59% chance of winning, Telstar a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Volendam and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Telstar?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Telstar in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Telstar (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.64
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.12
1.09
Telstar xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
3%
38.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.09 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 11D 29L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.25 PPG from 63 outings (21W 16D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.27 PPG, Telstar on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 14W 2D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 0.87 points per game from 31 outings (7W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.51 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Telstar in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 23W 11D 29L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Telstar have gone 21W 16D 26L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Telstar away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.42 PPG; Telstar away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2021, when FC Volendam won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Telstar?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 52%, Telstar 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (FC Volendam) and 45% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 26% of games; Telstar in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 55% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Volendam's matches and 45% of Telstar's.
Do FC Volendam and Telstar tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Telstar in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Telstar 3-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.03 xG and Telstar 1.09 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Telstar landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Telstar attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 59% | Draw 22% | Telstar 20%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Telstar 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Telstar's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.27 PPG, Telstar 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.