FC OSS 1-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Frans Heesen Stadion plays host to FC OSS versus Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC OSS have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Telstar's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC OSS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Telstar in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: FC OSS 2W, Telstar 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 43% versus Telstar 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 51% | Telstar 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.24 xG and Telstar 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.808 / defence 1.415 | Telstar attack 0.963 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.462. Data: 47 FC OSS games / 48 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 22% | Draw 25% | Telstar 53%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Telstar 1.89. Telstar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | Telstar 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 22% | Draw 25% | Telstar 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG FC OSS 1.24 / Telstar 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.808 / def 1.415 | Telstar attack 0.963 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Telstar (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Telstar xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Telstar kick off?
FC OSS vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Telstar?
FC OSS 1 - 1 Telstar.
Where is FC OSS vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Telstar part of?
FC OSS vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 22% chance of winning, Telstar a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC OSS and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Telstar?
Record (6 meetings): FC OSS 2W | Draws 2 | Telstar 2W.
What form are FC OSS and Telstar in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Telstar (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about FC OSS vs Telstar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.81x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.96x) against FC OSS's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
22%
4.62
25%
3.96
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.23
1.99
Telstar xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
3%
33.92
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.99 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 12W 6D 29L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 12W 13D 22L from 47 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for FC OSS against 1.04 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (8W 2D 13L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.32 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Telstar in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 6D 29L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Telstar have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Telstar away?
FC OSS's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.13 PPG; Telstar away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC OSS
3
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Telstar 3-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 48%, Telstar 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC OSS) and 48% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 35% of games; Telstar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC OSS's recent matches and 56% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC OSS's recent games and 48% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and Telstar tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Telstar in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as FC OSS and Telstar drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.24 xG and Telstar 1.99 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Telstar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Telstar attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 22% | Draw 25% | Telstar 53%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 51%, Telstar 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.89 PPG, Telstar 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.