FC Eindhoven 1-3 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus VVV Venlo in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 4D 3L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Louwers Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VVV Venlo (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Eindhoven's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: FC Eindhoven 1W, VVV Venlo 3W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 46% versus VVV Venlo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 48% | VVV Venlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.16 xG and VVV Venlo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.611 / defence 1.002 | VVV Venlo attack 0.818 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VVV Venlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 FC Eindhoven games / 56 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 32% | VVV Venlo 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | VVV Venlo 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
VVV Venlo lead the H2H ledger, but FC Eindhoven carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 20% | VVV Venlo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 32% | VVV Venlo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.16 / VVV Venlo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.611 / def 1.002 | VVV Venlo attack 0.818 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.15
VVV Venlo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 3 VVV Venlo.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo part of?
FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 34% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo?
Record (6 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 2 | VVV Venlo 3W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.61x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.82x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.15
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.31
1.15
VVV Venlo xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.15 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 16W 20D 20L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 16W 12D 28L from 56 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.07 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (6W 11D 10L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 7D 15L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.20 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 16W 20D 20L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 16W 12D 28L in their last 56 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or VVV Venlo away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.07 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VVV Venlo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 4-0 on 11 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
6
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, VVV Venlo have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 41%, VVV Venlo 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Eindhoven) and 59% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 41% of games; VVV Venlo in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 48% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 59% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.16 xG and VVV Venlo 1.15 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.61 / defence 1.00 against VVV Venlo attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 32% | VVV Venlo 34%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 48%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.21 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.