FC Eindhoven 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and Roda meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 2–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Roda — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 54% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 44% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.17 xG and Roda 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.930 / defence 0.921 | Roda attack 0.970 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.283. Roda's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 FC Eindhoven games / 50 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 35% | Draw 31% | Roda 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Roda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: FC Eindhoven 60% | Roda 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 35% | Draw 31% | Roda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.17 / Roda 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.930 / def 0.921 | Roda attack 0.970 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Roda xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Roda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Roda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 35% chance of winning, Roda a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Roda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.93x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.97x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.20
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.32
1.15
Roda xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.15 for Roda, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 20W 15D 15L from 50 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 21L across 50 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.38 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 11W 7D 6L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 7W 5D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.48 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Roda have gone 20W 9D 21L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Roda away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.67 PPG; Roda away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
5
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Roda have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 54%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Eindhoven) and 50% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Roda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 50% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 50% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Roda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven and Roda finished level at 1-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.17 xG and Roda 1.15 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Roda attack 0.97 / defence 0.75, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 35% | Draw 31% | Roda 34%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 44%, Roda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.50 PPG, Roda 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.