FC Eindhoven 1-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 28 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
FC Eindhoven (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Emmen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Emmen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 0.90 for Emmen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2025, ended 0–6 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 49% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 63% | Emmen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.29 xG and Emmen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.239 / defence 1.024 | Emmen attack 0.858 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.519. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 FC Eindhoven games / 70 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 59% | Draw 20% | Emmen 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Emmen 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 59% | Draw 20% | Emmen 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.29 / Emmen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.239 / def 1.024 | Emmen attack 0.858 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Emmen xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Emmen kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Emmen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 28 March 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 Emmen.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Emmen part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 59% chance of winning, Emmen a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Emmen?
Record (7 meetings): FC Eindhoven 4W | Draws 1 | Emmen 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Emmen in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Emmen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.24) and Emmen's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.86x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
59%
1.70
20%
5.10
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.62
1.33
Emmen xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
10%
9.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
2%
45.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.33 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 26W 13D 31L from 70 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 31L across 70 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.33 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 12W 7D 15L from 34 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 14W 3D 17L across 34 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.51 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 26W 13D 31L in their last 70 games (1.30 PPG), while Emmen have gone 27W 12D 31L in their last 70 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.26 PPG; Emmen away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 6-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, Emmen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Emmen?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 47%, Emmen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Eindhoven and 59% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 29% of games; Emmen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 47% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 59% of Emmen's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Emmen tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Emmen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Emmen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Emmen 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.29 xG and Emmen 1.33 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Eindhoven fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Emmen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.24 / defence 1.02 against Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 59% | Draw 20% | Emmen 21%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 63%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG, Emmen 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.