Emmen 2-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as Emmen welcome Jong PSV U21 to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 3W 0D 3L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 50% versus Jong PSV U21 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 43% | Jong PSV U21 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.77 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.977 / defence 0.874 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.884 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.555. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Emmen games / 14 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 51% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 26%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Jong PSV U21 3.85. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 17% | Jong PSV U21 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 51% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Emmen 1.77 / Jong PSV U21 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.977 / def 0.874 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.884 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: Emmen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Jong PSV U21 xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Emmen 2 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 51% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.98x the league average against Jong PSV U21's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.28
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.97
1.20
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
4%
22.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Emmen and 1.20 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 14 games, going 8W 2D 4L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 3W 0D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong PSV U21's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.64 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Emmen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Jong PSV U21 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2024, when Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
0
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 17%, Jong PSV U21 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Emmen) and 67% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 50% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Emmen's recent matches and 67% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Emmen's recent games and 67% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong PSV U21 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.77 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.20 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.88 / defence 1.43, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 51% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 26%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 43%, Jong PSV U21 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.