Emmen 1-4 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Jong AZ meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Jong AZ (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong AZ's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Emmen. A 0.50 PPG lead over Jong AZ (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Emmen, 1 for Jong AZ and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 50% versus Jong AZ 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.69 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.015 / defence 0.944 | Jong AZ attack 1.144 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.242. Data: 72 Emmen games / 72 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 46% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 30%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Jong AZ 3.33. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 46% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Emmen 1.69 / Jong AZ 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.015 / def 0.944 | Jong AZ attack 1.144 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Emmen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jong AZ xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong AZ kick off?
Emmen vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Emmen 1 - 4 Jong AZ.
Where is Emmen vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong AZ part of?
Emmen vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 46% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Emmen and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Emmen and Jong AZ in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.01) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.14x) against Emmen's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
46%
2.20
24%
4.15
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.03
1.34
Jong AZ xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
6%
17.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Emmen and 1.34 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen's recent record stands at 33W 11D 28L from 72 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 28L across 72 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Emmen against 1.36 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 16W 6D 14L from 36 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 10W 10D 16L across 36 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.68 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 68%.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 33W 11D 28L in their last 72 games (1.53 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 27W 17D 28L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong AZ away?
Emmen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Emmen
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong AZ?
From 9 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Emmen 3-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong AZ?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 47%, Jong AZ 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Emmen and 67% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Emmen's games and 69% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Emmen's matches and 67% of Jong AZ's.
Do Emmen and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Emmen 1-4 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.69 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Jong AZ attack 1.14 / defence 1.00, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 46% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 30%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.53 PPG, Jong AZ 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.