Emmen 4-2 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 41%, yet in-form Emmen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Emmen vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as Emmen welcome Jong Ajax to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emmen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Ajax in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Emmen, 1 for Jong Ajax and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 4–2 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 53% versus Jong Ajax 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 59% | Jong Ajax 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.31 xG and Jong Ajax 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.863 / defence 1.000 | Jong Ajax attack 0.997 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.509. Data: 51 Emmen games / 51 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 32% | Draw 27% | Jong Ajax 41%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Jong Ajax 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 32% | Draw 27% | Jong Ajax 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Emmen 1.31 / Jong Ajax 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.863 / def 1.000 | Jong Ajax attack 0.997 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Jong Ajax xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Emmen 4 - 2 Jong Ajax.
Where is Emmen vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong Ajax part of?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 32% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Record (4 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are Emmen and Jong Ajax in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.66
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.82
1.50
Jong Ajax xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Emmen and 1.50 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 9D 19L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.02 PPG from 51 outings (12W 16D 23L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 10W 5D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (4W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.29 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 23W 9D 19L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 12W 16D 23L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong Ajax away?
Emmen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.40 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Jong Ajax runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Emmen's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
2
Draws
1
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Emmen 0-0 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 48%, Jong Ajax 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Emmen and 72% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Emmen's games and 76% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Emmen's matches and 72% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Emmen and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Ajax 4-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.31 xG and Jong Ajax 1.50 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Jong Ajax attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 32% | Draw 27% | Jong Ajax 41%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 59%, Jong Ajax 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.