Emmen 3-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees De Graafschap travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.90 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emmen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Emmen, 1 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
De Graafschap trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 53% versus De Graafschap 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 58% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.40 xG and De Graafschap 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.991 / defence 1.068 | De Graafschap attack 1.118 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.480. Data: 53 Emmen games / 53 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 30% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 46%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.17. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | De Graafschap 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 25 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 30% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Emmen 1.40 / De Graafschap 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.991 / def 1.068 | De Graafschap attack 1.118 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.77
De Graafschap xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs De Graafschap kick off?
Emmen vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 25 November 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Emmen 3 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Emmen vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs De Graafschap part of?
Emmen vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 30% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Emmen and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.99x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
30%
3.32
24%
4.15
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.17
1.77
De Graafschap xG
3.32
30%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
5%
19.41
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Emmen and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Emmen and 1.77 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 26W 9D 20L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 27W 12D 16L from 55 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.58 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 10W 7D 10L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.85 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 26W 9D 20L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 27W 12D 16L in their last 55 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or De Graafschap away?
Emmen's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.52 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, De Graafschap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 48%, De Graafschap 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Emmen and 74% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Emmen's games and 70% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Emmen's matches and 74% of De Graafschap's.
Do Emmen and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat De Graafschap 3-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.40 xG and De Graafschap 1.77 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against De Graafschap attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 30% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 46%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 58%, De Graafschap 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.58 PPG, De Graafschap 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.