Emmen 3-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Oude Meerdijk plays host to Emmen versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Cambuur have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Emmen have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Cambuur managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Emmen winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 51% versus Cambuur 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | Cambuur 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.34 xG and Cambuur 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.936 / defence 1.033 | Cambuur attack 1.259 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.302. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Emmen games / 70 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 30% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 45%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 2.22. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 30% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Emmen 1.34 / Cambuur 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.936 / def 1.033 | Cambuur attack 1.259 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Cambuur xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Cambuur kick off?
Emmen vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 April 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Cambuur?
Emmen 3 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Emmen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Cambuur part of?
Emmen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 30% chance of winning, Cambuur a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Emmen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Cambuur?
Record (5 meetings): Emmen 3W | Draws 2 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Emmen and Cambuur in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Emmen's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.26x) against Emmen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
30%
3.35
25%
4.04
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.03
1.69
Cambuur xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
5%
18.19
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Emmen and 1.69 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 32W 11D 27L from 70 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 27L across 70 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Emmen against 1.50 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 15W 6D 14L from 35 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 17W 4D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.76 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 61%.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 32W 11D 27L in their last 70 games (1.53 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 31W 12D 27L in their last 70 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.46 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Cambuur?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Cambuur have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 24 March 2026, when Emmen 2-4 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Cambuur?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 49%, Cambuur 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Emmen) and 60% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Emmen's recent matches and 57% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Emmen's matches and 60% of Cambuur's.
Do Emmen and Cambuur tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Cambuur 3-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.34 xG and Cambuur 1.69 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Cambuur attack 1.26 / defence 0.89, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 30% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 45%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Cambuur 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.53 PPG, Cambuur 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.