Dordrecht 1-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, De Graafschap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 1–4 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 63% and De Graafschap 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 58% | De Graafschap 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.95 xG and De Graafschap 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.203 / defence 1.093 | De Graafschap attack 0.940 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.287. Data: 61 Dordrecht games / 60 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 52% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 26%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 3.85. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 70% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 52% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Dordrecht 1.95 / De Graafschap 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.203 / def 1.093 | De Graafschap attack 0.940 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.32
De Graafschap xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Dordrecht 1 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 52% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (5 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.94x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.42
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.27
1.32
De Graafschap xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
4%
27.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.32 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 29W 22D 11L from 62 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 29W 13D 20L across 62 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.61 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 16W 12D 2L from 30 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 8D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.79 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 29W 22D 11L in their last 62 games (1.76 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 29W 13D 20L in their last 62 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 60%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Dordrecht and 70% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dordrecht's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dordrecht's matches and 70% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Dordrecht and De Graafschap drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.95 xG and De Graafschap 1.32 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.20 / defence 1.09 against De Graafschap attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 52% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 26%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, De Graafschap 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.76 PPG, De Graafschap 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.