Den Bosch 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waalwijk make the trip to De Vliert to face Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 3 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's home record at De Vliert: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vliert. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.70 for Waalwijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 49% versus Waalwijk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | Waalwijk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.23 xG and Waalwijk 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.242 / defence 1.218 | Waalwijk attack 0.998 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.392. Data: 46 Den Bosch games / 9 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 50% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 30%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.00 | Draw 5.00 | Waalwijk 3.33. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 50% | Waalwijk 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 50% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Den Bosch 2.23 / Waalwijk 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.242 / def 1.218 | Waalwijk attack 0.998 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Waalwijk xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Waalwijk kick off?
Den Bosch vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Waalwijk?
Den Bosch 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Den Bosch vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Waalwijk part of?
Den Bosch vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 50% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 30% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Den Bosch and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and Waalwijk in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.24) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (1.00x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 46/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
50%
1.99
20%
4.93
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.92
1.69
Waalwijk xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
11%
9.28
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
3%
31.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.69 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 15W 12D 16L from 43 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 24L across 43 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Den Bosch by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 3W 4D 14L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.35 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 10W 9D 24L in their last 43 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Waalwijk away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.62 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
1
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, Waalwijk have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Waalwijk 2-3 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Waalwijk?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 48%, Waalwijk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Den Bosch) and 62% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Waalwijk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Den Bosch's games and 67% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Den Bosch's recent games and 62% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.23 xG and Waalwijk 1.69 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.24 / defence 1.22 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 50% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 30%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Waalwijk 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.