De Graafschap 3-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as De Graafschap welcome VVV Venlo to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. De Graafschap haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vijverberg. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VVV Venlo haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.40 PPG versus VVV Venlo's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
VVV Venlo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against De Graafschap's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with VVV Venlo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VVV Venlo have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus VVV Venlo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.96 xG and VVV Venlo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.071 / defence 0.871 | VVV Venlo attack 0.960 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 1.274. Data: 38 De Graafschap games / 38 VVV Venlo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 20%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | VVV Venlo 5.00. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 40% | VVV Venlo 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 8 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG De Graafschap 1.96 / VVV Venlo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.071 / def 0.871 | VVV Venlo attack 0.960 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.790 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.07
VVV Venlo xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kick off?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 August 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
De Graafschap 3 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo part of?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 58% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both De Graafschap and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
Record (7 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 5W.
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.59
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.03
1.07
VVV Venlo xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
3%
35.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.07 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 18W 9D 11L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. De Graafschap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
VVV Venlo's form line: 11W 8D 19L from 38 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. VVV Venlo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VVV Venlo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.21 PPG from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.16 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
VVV Venlo
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or VVV Venlo away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.21 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
1
Draws
6
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 53%, VVV Venlo 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for De Graafschap and 74% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 47% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of De Graafschap's matches and 74% of VVV Venlo's.
Do De Graafschap and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out VVV Venlo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat VVV Venlo 3-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.96 xG and VVV Venlo 1.07 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against VVV Venlo attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 58% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 20%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.