De Graafschap vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for De Graafschap, 1.30 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, NAC Breda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and NAC Breda 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 71% | NAC Breda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.91 xG and NAC Breda 2.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | NAC Breda attack 0.970 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 4 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 33% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 47%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.03 | Draw 5.00 | NAC Breda 2.13. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 2.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 77% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 33% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG De Graafschap 1.91 / NAC Breda 2.30 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | NAC Breda attack 0.970 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.30
NAC Breda xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kick off?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 14:45 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda part of?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 33% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 47% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both De Graafschap and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.01x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.97x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.30.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
33%
3.05
20%
5.05
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.21
2.30
NAC Breda xG
3.05
33%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.29
Clean Sheet
10%
10.00
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
3%
30.54
7%
14.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.30 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 10D 12L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.95 PPG from 38 outings (8W 12D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 9W 3D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (2W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.11 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or NAC Breda away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.67 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for De Graafschap, 56% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for De Graafschap and 67% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of De Graafschap's games and 56% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of De Graafschap's matches and 67% of NAC Breda's.
Do De Graafschap and NAC Breda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.