De Graafschap 2-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees MVV travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 May 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
MVV — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
MVV's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, MVV 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 1 for MVV and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
MVV trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 53% versus MVV 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 55% | MVV 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.96 xG and MVV 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.972 / defence 0.935 | MVV attack 0.982 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.318. Data: 73 De Graafschap games / 73 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 22% | MVV 23%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | MVV 4.35. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 30% | MVV 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 22% | MVV 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG De Graafschap 1.96 / MVV 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.972 / def 0.935 | MVV attack 0.982 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.21
MVV xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs MVV kick off?
De Graafschap vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 MVV.
Where is De Graafschap vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs MVV part of?
De Graafschap vs MVV is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 55% chance of winning, MVV a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both De Graafschap and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 1 | MVV 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. MVV (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.97) and MVV's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.58
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.17
1.21
MVV xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
3%
30.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.21 for MVV, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 27W 19D 27L from 73 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 35L across 73 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.37 PPG, MVV on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 12W 11D 13L from 36 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 12W 3D 21L across 36 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.44 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 62%.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 27W 19D 27L in their last 73 games (1.37 PPG), while MVV have gone 29W 9D 35L in their last 73 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or MVV away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.31 PPG; MVV away: 1.08 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, MVV in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
4
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and MVV?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 50%, MVV 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (De Graafschap) and 69% (MVV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 58% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of De Graafschap's matches and 69% of MVV's.
Do De Graafschap and MVV tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, MVV in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out MVV 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat MVV 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.96 xG and MVV 1.21 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against MVV attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 55% | Draw 22% | MVV 23%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 55%, MVV 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
MVV's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.37 PPG, MVV 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.