De Graafschap 2-3 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 13 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
De Graafschap's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — De Graafschap are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.50 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of De Graafschap: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Helmond Sport, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Feb 2024, ended De Graafschap 1–3 Helmond Sport — a Helmond Sport win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both De Graafschap and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Helmond Sport trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Helmond Sport 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 69% | Helmond Sport 55%). Note also that Helmond Sport surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while De Graafschap recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.50 xG and Helmond Sport 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.269 / defence 1.055 | Helmond Sport attack 0.754 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.300. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack rating of 1.269 — their 1.50 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Helmond Sport bring a tight defence (rating 0.760, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling De Graafschap's projected output down. Helmond Sport's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 43 games and Helmond Sport's last 42.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 44% | Draw 33% | Helmond Sport 23%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.25 | Draw 3.06 | Helmond Sport 4.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (De Graafschap 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 70% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 13 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 44% | Draw 33% | Helmond Sport 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG De Graafschap 1.50 / Helmond Sport 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.269 / def 1.055 | Helmond Sport attack 0.754 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Helmond Sport xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kick off?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 13 September 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap 2 - 3 Helmond Sport.
Where is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport part of?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 6) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 44% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.27) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 43 games and Helmond Sport's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
44%
2.25
33%
3.06
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.53
1.03
Helmond Sport xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.03 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 21W 7D 14L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Helmond Sport's form line: 16W 11D 15L from 42 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.67 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.05 PPG from their last 21 home games (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 5W 5D 11L from their last 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Helmond Sport
Early Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Early Season
Helmond Sport
Early Season
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 7D 14L in their last 42 games (1.67 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Helmond Sport away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.05 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.95 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won Helmond Sport 0-4 De Graafschap.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 62%, Helmond Sport 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (De Graafschap) and 52% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 33%; Helmond Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Helmond Sport matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 48% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of De Graafschap's matches and 52% of Helmond Sport's.
Do De Graafschap and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 71% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat De Graafschap 2-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.50 xG and Helmond Sport 1.03 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Helmond Sport outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.27 / defence 1.05 against Helmond Sport attack 0.75 / defence 0.76, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 44% | Draw 33% | Helmond Sport 23%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Helmond Sport win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 69%, Helmond Sport 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.67 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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