Jong AZ 2-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host De Graafschap at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Jong AZ have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 66% and De Graafschap 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 70% | De Graafschap 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.21 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.361 / defence 0.953 | De Graafschap attack 1.221 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.374. Jong AZ carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Jong AZ games / 44 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 51% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 3.70. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 70% | De Graafschap 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 51% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Jong AZ 2.21 / De Graafschap 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.361 / def 0.953 | De Graafschap attack 1.221 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.60
De Graafschap xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 September 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Jong AZ 2 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 51% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Jong AZ and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
Record (6 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
51%
1.98
23%
4.41
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.80
1.60
De Graafschap xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
11%
9.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
3%
33.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.60 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 9D 16L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 21W 7D 16L from 44 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.50 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.95 PPG from 21 outings (13W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 3D 10L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.77 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 7D 16L in their last 44 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.95 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 57%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong AZ and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jong AZ's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong AZ's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong AZ and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ and De Graafschap finished level at 2-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.21 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.36 / defence 0.95 against De Graafschap attack 1.22 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 51% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 27%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, De Graafschap 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.50 PPG, De Graafschap 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.