De Graafschap 4-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.80 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: De Graafschap 1W, Dordrecht 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 67% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 71% | Dordrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.04 xG and Dordrecht 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.370 / defence 0.987 | Dordrecht attack 0.948 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.465. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 De Graafschap games / 50 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 4.00. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG De Graafschap 2.04 / Dordrecht 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.370 / def 0.987 | Dordrecht attack 0.948 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dordrecht xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
De Graafschap 4 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 52% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.37) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.95x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.22
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.41
1.37
Dordrecht xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
3%
31.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.37 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 11D 16L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.77 PPG from 52 outings (24W 20D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.77 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 15W 5D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.54 points per game from 26 outings (10W 10D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.83 scored and 1.31 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 25W 11D 16L in their last 52 games (1.65 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 24W 20D 8L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Dordrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.92 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.54 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
5
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Dordrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for De Graafschap, 69% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for De Graafschap and 58% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of De Graafschap's games and 69% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of De Graafschap's matches and 58% of Dordrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Dordrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Dordrecht 4-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.04 xG and Dordrecht 1.37 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.37 / defence 0.99 against Dordrecht attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 25%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 71%, Dordrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.65 PPG, Dordrecht 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.