De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Monday 26 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward De Graafschap. A 0.60 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours De Graafschap, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Den Bosch — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
The historical record gives De Graafschap a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 67% and Den Bosch 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 64% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.34 xG and Den Bosch 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.095 / defence 1.206 | Den Bosch attack 1.002 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.568. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 De Graafschap games / 61 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.08 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 3.12. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.24 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 48% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG De Graafschap 2.34 / Den Bosch 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.095 / def 1.206 | Den Bosch attack 1.002 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Den Bosch xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kick off?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 January 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch part of?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 48% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 32% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both De Graafschap and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.09x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.00x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
48%
2.07
20%
4.96
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.24
1.90
Den Bosch xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.36
Clean Sheet
15%
6.66
10%
10.40
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
3%
32.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.90 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 30W 13D 20L from 63 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 24L across 63 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.41 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 19W 5D 7L from 31 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 10W 5D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 30W 13D 20L in their last 63 games (1.63 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 25W 14D 24L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Den Bosch away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.13 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
3
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Den Bosch have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 64%, Den Bosch 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for De Graafschap and 74% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of De Graafschap's games and 58% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of De Graafschap's matches and 74% of Den Bosch's.
Do De Graafschap and Den Bosch tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap and Den Bosch finished level at 1-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.34 xG and Den Bosch 1.90 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.09 / defence 1.21 against Den Bosch attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 48% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 64%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.63 PPG, Den Bosch 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.