Cambuur 2-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Telstar travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 January 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 4W 1D 5L at Kooi Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kooi Stadion this season.
Telstar — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cambuur, 0 for Telstar and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Telstar trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 61% versus Telstar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 61% | Telstar 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.44 xG and Telstar 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.754 / defence 0.920 | Telstar attack 0.838 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.287. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Cambuur games / 61 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 47% | Draw 27% | Telstar 26%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Telstar 3.85. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 40% | Telstar 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 47% | Draw 27% | Telstar 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Cambuur 1.44 / Telstar 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.754 / def 0.920 | Telstar attack 0.838 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Telstar xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Telstar kick off?
Cambuur vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Telstar?
Cambuur 2 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Cambuur vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Telstar part of?
Cambuur vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 47% chance of winning, Telstar a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cambuur and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Telstar?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Telstar in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.75) and Telstar's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.65
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.43
0.99
Telstar xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
6%
16.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.99 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 25W 10D 26L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 17W 16D 28L from 61 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.39 PPG, Telstar on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 5W 6D 19L from 30 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Telstar's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.34 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Telstar in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 25W 10D 26L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Telstar have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Telstar away?
Cambuur's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.23 PPG; Telstar away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Cambuur
2
Draws
0
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Telstar?
From 5 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Telstar have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Telstar 2-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Telstar?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 67%, Telstar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Cambuur) and 47% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Telstar in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 53% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Cambuur's recent games and 47% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and Telstar tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Telstar in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Telstar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Telstar 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.44 xG and Telstar 0.99 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.75 / defence 0.92 against Telstar attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 47% | Draw 27% | Telstar 26%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 61%, Telstar 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.39 PPG, Telstar 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.