Cambuur 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cambuur at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Roda encounter.

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Analysis

Roda make the trip to Kooi Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cambuur at Kooi Stadion this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kooi Stadion.

Roda (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Roda have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Cambuur. A 1.00 PPG lead over Roda (2.50 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 53% versus Roda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 52% | Roda 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.73 xG and Roda 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.141 / defence 0.764 | Roda attack 1.131 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.476. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Cambuur games / 68 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cambuur 48% | Draw 25% | Roda 28%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 3.57. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 50% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.

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