Cambuur 1-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face MVV.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Cambuur's favour (2.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cambuur, 0 for MVV and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 63% versus MVV 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 61% | MVV 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.96 xG and MVV 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.055 / defence 0.897 | MVV attack 0.696 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.250. Data: 75 Cambuur games / 75 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 65% | Draw 21% | MVV 14%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | MVV 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | MVV 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 65% | Draw 21% | MVV 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG Cambuur 1.96 / MVV 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.055 / def 0.897 | MVV attack 0.696 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.78
MVV xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs MVV kick off?
Cambuur vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs MVV?
Cambuur 1 - 0 MVV.
Where is Cambuur vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs MVV part of?
Cambuur vs MVV is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 65% chance of winning, MVV a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cambuur and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and MVV?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 1 | MVV 0W.
What form are Cambuur and MVV in?
Cambuur (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. MVV (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.05) and MVV's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.70x) against Cambuur's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.68
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.74
0.78
MVV xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
2%
51.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.78 for MVV, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 34W 13D 28L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
MVV's form line: 26W 18D 31L from 75 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Cambuur against 1.28 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.51 PPG from 37 outings (16W 8D 13L).
On the road, MVV have gone 9W 9D 19L from 37 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.55 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and MVV in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 34W 13D 28L in their last 75 games (1.53 PPG), while MVV have gone 26W 18D 31L in their last 75 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or MVV away?
Cambuur's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.51 PPG; MVV away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 4-0 on 19 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Cambuur
1
Draws
0
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and MVV?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 5, MVV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Cambuur 4-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and MVV?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 68%, MVV 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Cambuur and 65% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cambuur's games and 57% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Cambuur's matches and 65% of MVV's.
Do Cambuur and MVV tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, MVV in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out MVV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat MVV 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.96 xG and MVV 0.78 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against MVV attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 65% | Draw 21% | MVV 14%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 61%, MVV 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.53 PPG, MVV 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.