Cambuur 3-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cambuur at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 7W 1D 2L at Kooi Stadion — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cambuur's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cambuur, 2 for Jong Utrecht and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2024, ended 4–0 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 61% versus Jong Utrecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 61% | Jong Utrecht 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.50 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.065 / defence 0.880 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.673 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.247. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Cambuur games / 71 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 76% | Draw 16% | Jong Utrecht 9%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Jong Utrecht 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 50% | Jong Utrecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 76% | Draw 16% | Jong Utrecht 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 48% | xG Cambuur 2.50 / Jong Utrecht 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.065 / def 0.880 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.673 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Jong Utrecht xG
48%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Cambuur 3 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 76% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cambuur and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.06x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.67x) against Cambuur's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.42
9%
11.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.24
0.74
Jong Utrecht xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.42
16%
Draw
11.38
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
8%
12.18
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
138.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.74 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 31W 12D 28L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 8W 22D 41L from 71 games, 0.65 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.43 PPG from 35 outings (14W 8D 13L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 9D 24L from 35 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.82 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 31W 12D 28L in their last 71 games (1.48 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 22D 41L in their last 71 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Cambuur's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.43 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-4 on 23 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 66%, Jong Utrecht 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cambuur and 63% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Cambuur's games and 54% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cambuur's matches and 63% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Cambuur and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.50 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.74 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.67 / defence 1.42, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 76% | Draw 16% | Jong Utrecht 9%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 61%, Jong Utrecht 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.