Almere City FC 1-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees FC Volendam travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's home record at Yanmar Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.60 PPG, FC Volendam 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Almere City FC, 2 for FC Volendam and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
FC Volendam trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 66% and FC Volendam 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 70% | FC Volendam 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.58 xG and FC Volendam 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.832 / defence 0.771 | FC Volendam attack 0.943 / defence 1.558. League average goals — home 1.987 / away 1.506. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.558 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Almere City FC games / 8 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 69% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 14%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | FC Volendam 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | FC Volendam 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 69% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 62% | xG Almere City FC 2.58 / FC Volendam 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.832 / def 0.771 | FC Volendam attack 0.943 / def 1.558 | league avg home 1.987 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC Volendam xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC Volendam kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 October 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Almere City FC 1 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam part of?
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 69% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Almere City FC and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and FC Volendam in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.83) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 2.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 1-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
69%
1.44
17%
5.99
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.67
1.10
FC Volendam xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.99
17%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
8%
13.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
1%
93.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.10 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 23W 6D 15L from 44 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 23L across 44 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 12W 3D 6L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 3W 2D 16L across 21 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.32 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 23W 6D 15L in their last 44 games (1.70 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC Volendam away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.86 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and FC Volendam runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almere City FC's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2026, when Almere City FC 1-0 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 57%, FC Volendam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Almere City FC and 62% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 48% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of FC Volendam's.
Do Almere City FC and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out FC Volendam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC Volendam 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.58 xG and FC Volendam 1.10 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.77 against FC Volendam attack 0.94 / defence 1.56, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 69% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 14%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 70%, FC Volendam 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.