Almere City FC vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Almere City FC welcome Emmen to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 January 2027 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 7W 0D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.80 PPG, Emmen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 2 for Emmen and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 65% and Emmen 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 72% | Emmen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.66 xG and Emmen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.801 | Emmen attack 1.073 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.839 / away 1.584. Data: 51 Almere City FC games / 51 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 45% | Draw 24% | Emmen 32%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Emmen 3.12. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 40% | Emmen 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 45% | Draw 24% | Emmen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Almere City FC 1.66 / Emmen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.930 / def 0.801 | Emmen attack 1.073 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.839 / away 1.584 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Emmen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Emmen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Emmen part of?
Almere City FC vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 45% chance of winning, Emmen a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Almere City FC and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Record (7 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 1 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.93) and Emmen's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
45%
2.24
24%
4.18
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.36
Emmen xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.36 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 27W 6D 18L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 20W 10D 21L from 51 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.71 PPG, Emmen on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.92 PPG from 25 outings (15W 3D 7L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.65 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 27W 6D 18L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while Emmen have gone 20W 10D 21L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Emmen away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.92 PPG; Emmen away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Emmen runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
From 7 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Emmen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Emmen 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, Emmen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Almere City FC and 64% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Emmen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 56% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Almere City FC's matches and 64% of Emmen's.
Do Almere City FC and Emmen tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Emmen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.