Vicenza Virtus vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.33 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 67% and Padova 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 100% | Padova 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.65 xG and Padova 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / defence 1.245 | Padova attack 0.919 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Vicenza Virtus games / 41 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 45% | Draw 24% | Padova 31%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Padova 3.23. Vicenza Virtus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vicenza Virtus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 45% | Draw 24% | Padova 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.65 / Padova 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / def 1.245 | Padova attack 0.919 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Padova xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Padova kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Padova is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 45% chance of winning, Padova a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Padova in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D. Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.92x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.15
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.97
1.32
Padova xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.32 for Padova, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.33 for Padova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Padova in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Padova in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Padova have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Vicenza Virtus or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Padova in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Vicenza Virtus, 67% for Padova — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Vicenza Virtus and 33% for Padova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Padova in 33%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 67% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 33% of Padova's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Padova tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Padova in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.