Venezia 2-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Feralpisalo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 37 as Venezia welcome Feralpisalo to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Feralpisalo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Feralpisalo have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Venezia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Venezia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Feralpisalo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Venezia, 0 for Feralpisalo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 61% versus Feralpisalo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 69% | Feralpisalo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.06 xG and Feralpisalo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.436 / defence 1.124 | Feralpisalo attack 0.925 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 74 Venezia games / 36 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 55% | Draw 24% | Feralpisalo 21%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Feralpisalo 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Feralpisalo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 55% | Draw 24% | Feralpisalo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Venezia 2.06 / Feralpisalo 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.436 / def 1.124 | Feralpisalo attack 0.925 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Venezia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Feralpisalo xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Venezia vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Feralpisalo?
Venezia 2 - 1 Feralpisalo.
Where is Venezia vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Feralpisalo part of?
Venezia vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 55% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Venezia and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Feralpisalo?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Feralpisalo 0W.
What form are Venezia and Feralpisalo in?
Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Feralpisalo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.44x the league average against Feralpisalo's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.18
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.28
1.22
Feralpisalo xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
3%
37.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Venezia and 1.22 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Feralpisalo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia come into this having played 36 games, going 20W 7D 9L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Feralpisalo sit at 0.92 PPG from 36 outings (8W 9D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Feralpisalo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Venezia's home form reads 12W 3D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Feralpisalo have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 1.19 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Feralpisalo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 20W 7D 9L in their last 36 games (1.86 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 8W 9D 19L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Feralpisalo away?
Venezia's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.17 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Venezia or Feralpisalo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Feralpisalo in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Venezia 2-1 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Feralpisalo?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 72%, Feralpisalo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Venezia and 50% for Feralpisalo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Feralpisalo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Venezia's games and 56% of Feralpisalo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Venezia's matches and 50% of Feralpisalo's.
Do Venezia and Feralpisalo tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Feralpisalo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Feralpisalo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Feralpisalo 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.06 xG and Feralpisalo 1.22 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.44 / defence 1.12 against Feralpisalo attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 55% | Draw 24% | Feralpisalo 21%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 69%, Feralpisalo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.