Cosenza 2-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spezia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cosenza, 1.40 for Spezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cosenza, 0 for Spezia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 51% versus Spezia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 39% | Spezia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.44 xG and Spezia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.058 / defence 1.076 | Spezia attack 0.661 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Data: 74 Cosenza games / 36 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 49% | Draw 30% | Spezia 20%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Spezia 5.00. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cosenza 70% | Spezia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 49% | Draw 30% | Spezia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Cosenza 1.44 / Spezia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.058 / def 1.076 | Spezia attack 0.661 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Spezia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Spezia kick off?
Cosenza vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Spezia?
Cosenza 2 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Cosenza vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Spezia part of?
Cosenza vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 49% chance of winning, Spezia a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cosenza and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Spezia?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Spezia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Spezia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.06x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.66x) against Cosenza's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
49%
2.02
30%
3.28
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.28
0.84
Spezia xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
5%
21.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.84 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 20W 26D 29L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 14W 29D 32L from 75 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Cosenza against 0.95 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.32 PPG from 37 outings (12W 13D 12L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 5W 13D 19L from 37 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.85 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Spezia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 20W 26D 29L in their last 75 games (1.15 PPG), while Spezia have gone 14W 29D 32L in their last 75 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Spezia away?
Cosenza's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.32 PPG; Spezia away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cosenza
3
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Spezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Spezia 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 60%, Spezia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 49% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Spezia in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cosenza's recent matches and 46% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 49% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Spezia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Spezia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 37, as Cosenza and Spezia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.44 xG and Spezia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Spezia attack 0.66 / defence 1.11, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 49% | Draw 30% | Spezia 20%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 39%, Spezia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.15 PPG, Spezia 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.