Sudtirol 4-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Sudtirol have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ternana have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sudtirol, 1.20 for Ternana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sudtirol edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Sudtirol 1–1 Ternana — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Ternana — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 47% versus Ternana 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 33% | Ternana 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sudtirol surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Ternana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ternana surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.15 xG and Ternana 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.813 / defence 0.779 | Ternana attack 1.003 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.180. Sudtirol have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling Ternana's projected output down. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 73 games and Ternana's last 73.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 38% | Draw 35% | Ternana 27%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.62 | Draw 2.83 | Ternana 3.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 10% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 38% | Draw 35% | Ternana 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sudtirol 1.15 / Ternana 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.813 / def 0.779 | Ternana attack 1.003 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Ternana xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Ternana FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Ternana kick off?
Sudtirol vs Ternana kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Sudtirol 4 - 3 Ternana.
Where is Sudtirol vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Ternana part of?
Sudtirol vs Ternana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 38% chance of winning, Ternana a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Ternana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sudtirol vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.81x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.00x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 73 games and Ternana's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
38%
2.62
35%
2.83
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.07
0.92
Ternana xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Ternana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.92 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol come into this having played 73 games, going 27W 26D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.10 PPG from 73 outings (20W 20D 33L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.10 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sudtirol's home form reads 13W 15D 8L across their last 36 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 36 away games (8W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.03 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
Sudtirol (Home) vs Ternana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Sudtirol vs Ternana Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Ternana in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 27W 26D 20L in their last 73 games (1.47 PPG), while Ternana have gone 20W 20D 33L in their last 73 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Ternana away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.50 PPG; Ternana away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ternana in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Ternana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ternana?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 2, Ternana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Ternana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2024: Sudtirol 4-3 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Ternana?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 44%, Ternana 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Sudtirol) and 64% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 31% of games; Ternana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Ternana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Ternana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 61% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sudtirol and Ternana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Sudtirol's recent games and 64% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Ternana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 72% of Ternana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Ternana 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Ternana 4-3 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.15 xG and Ternana 0.92 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ternana outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.81 / defence 0.78 against Ternana attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 38% | Draw 35% | Ternana 27%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 33%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.47 PPG, Ternana 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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