Sudtirol 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Frosinone (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sudtirol's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Frosinone's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sudtirol 0W, Frosinone 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Frosinone 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 52% | Frosinone 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.88 xG and Frosinone 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.044 / defence 1.347 | Frosinone attack 0.765 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.113. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Sudtirol games / 10 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 52% | Draw 27% | Frosinone 21%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Frosinone 4.76. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 60% | Frosinone 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Oct 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 52% | Draw 27% | Frosinone 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Sudtirol 1.88 / Frosinone 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.044 / def 1.347 | Frosinone attack 0.765 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Frosinone xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Frosinone kick off?
Sudtirol vs Frosinone kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Sudtirol vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Frosinone part of?
Sudtirol vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 52% chance of winning, Frosinone a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sudtirol and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 2 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Frosinone in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Frosinone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.77x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.73
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
3.02
1.15
Frosinone xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
3%
31.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.15 for Frosinone, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 16W 11D 21L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 9W 15D 24L from 48 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Sudtirol against 0.88 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 2W 7D 14L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.04 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 9W 15D 24L in their last 48 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Frosinone away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.35 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 0-3 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
4
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Frosinone have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sudtirol 1-3 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 48%, Frosinone 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sudtirol) and 52% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 35% of games; Frosinone in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 56% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sudtirol's recent games and 52% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Frosinone tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.88 xG and Frosinone 1.15 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.04 / defence 1.35 against Frosinone attack 0.77 / defence 1.42, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 52% | Draw 27% | Frosinone 21%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Frosinone 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.23 PPG, Frosinone 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.