Spezia 3-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 39%, yet in-form Pisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Spezia vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Pisa meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Spezia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Picco. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Pisa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pisa arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Spezia, 0 for Pisa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pisa — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Pisa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 41% | Pisa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.16 xG and Pisa 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.143 / defence 0.920 | Pisa attack 0.951 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.054. Data: 66 Spezia games / 66 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 33% | Pisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Pisa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 40% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 33% | Pisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Spezia 1.16 / Pisa 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.143 / def 0.920 | Pisa attack 0.951 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Spezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Pisa xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Pisa kick off?
Spezia vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Pisa?
Spezia 3 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Spezia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Pisa part of?
Spezia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 39% chance of winning, Pisa a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Spezia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 2 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Spezia and Pisa in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.14) and Pisa's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.95x) against Spezia's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
39%
2.55
33%
2.99
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.08
0.92
Pisa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Spezia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Spezia and 0.92 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 22W 29D 15L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 27W 20D 19L from 66 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Spezia against 1.53 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.69 PPG from 32 outings (14W 12D 6L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 10W 9D 13L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.42 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 64%.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 22W 29D 15L in their last 66 games (1.44 PPG), while Pisa have gone 27W 20D 19L in their last 66 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Pisa away?
Spezia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.69 PPG; Pisa away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Spezia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Pisa in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spezia
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Spezia 3-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Pisa?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 50%, Pisa 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Spezia) and 44% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 31% of games; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Spezia's recent matches and 59% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Spezia's recent games and 44% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Pisa tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Pisa in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Pisa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Pisa 3-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.16 xG and Pisa 0.92 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Pisa attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 39% | Draw 33% | Pisa 27%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 41%, Pisa 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.44 PPG, Pisa 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.