Spezia 3-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Cosenza meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cosenza away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cosenza in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spezia lead 0W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 48% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 43% | Cosenza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 2.14 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.181 / defence 0.984 | Cosenza attack 0.850 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.160. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Spezia games / 75 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 63% | Draw 22% | Cosenza 15%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Cosenza 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 63% | Draw 22% | Cosenza 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Spezia 2.14 / Cosenza 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.181 / def 0.984 | Cosenza attack 0.850 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Spezia (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cosenza xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Cosenza kick off?
Spezia vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Cosenza?
Spezia 3 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Spezia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Cosenza part of?
Spezia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 63% chance of winning, Cosenza a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Spezia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cosenza?
Record (3 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 3 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Spezia and Cosenza in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spezia's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.85x) against Spezia's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.64
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Spezia xG
Total xG
3.11
0.97
Cosenza xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
2%
55.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Spezia and 0.97 for Cosenza, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spezia's recent record stands at 25W 32D 18L from 75 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 18W 27D 30L across 75 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Spezia against 1.08 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 17W 12D 8L from 37 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 8W 13D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.04 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 25W 32D 18L in their last 75 games (1.43 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 18W 27D 30L in their last 75 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Cosenza away?
Spezia's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.70 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Spezia or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cosenza in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
3
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Spezia 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Cosenza?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 49%, Cosenza 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Spezia) and 40% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 30% of games; Cosenza in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Spezia's recent matches and 51% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Spezia's recent games and 40% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Cosenza 3-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 2.14 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Cosenza attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 63% | Draw 22% | Cosenza 15%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 43%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.43 PPG, Cosenza 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.