Spezia 2-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spezia face Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Ascoli in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Ascoli's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ascoli have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Spezia, 1.30 for Ascoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Spezia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Spezia 2–1 Ascoli — a Spezia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 48% versus Ascoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 48% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.10 xG and Ascoli 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.856 / defence 1.093 | Ascoli attack 0.907 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.210. Data: built from Spezia's last 30 games and Ascoli's last 68.
Result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 37%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.11 | Draw 3.24 | Ascoli 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Spezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Spezia 1.10 / Ascoli 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.856 / def 1.093 | Ascoli attack 0.907 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ascoli xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Ascoli kick off?
Spezia vs Ascoli kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Ascoli?
Spezia 2 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Spezia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Ascoli part of?
Spezia vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 32% chance of winning, Ascoli a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Spezia and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Spezia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.86) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.91x) against Spezia's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 30 games and Ascoli's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.24
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.30
1.20
Ascoli xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Spezia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Spezia and 1.20 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia's recent record stands at 11W 26D 31L from 68 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 19W 21D 28L across 68 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Spezia against 1.15 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 6W 14D 13L from their last 33 home games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 8W 9D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.06 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
Spezia (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Spezia vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 11W 26D 31L in their last 68 games (0.87 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 19W 21D 28L in their last 68 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.97 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Spezia
0
Draws
0
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Ascoli?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 2, Ascoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2024: Spezia 2-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Ascoli?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 73% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 48%, Ascoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Spezia) and 33% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games; Ascoli in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Ascoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Spezia's recent matches and 48% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Spezia's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Spezia's recent matches and 67% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Ascoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Ascoli 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.10 xG and Ascoli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Ascoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 32% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 37%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 48%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.87 PPG, Ascoli 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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