Sampdoria 1-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sudtirol in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 63% versus Sudtirol 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 51% | Sudtirol 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.08 xG and Sudtirol 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.783 / defence 0.884 | Sudtirol attack 1.062 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.139. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Sampdoria games / 43 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 33%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 60% | Sudtirol 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Sampdoria 1.08 / Sudtirol 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.783 / def 0.884 | Sudtirol attack 1.062 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sudtirol xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Sudtirol kick off?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol part of?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 34% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sampdoria and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Sudtirol in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.78) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.06x) against Sampdoria's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
34%
2.97
33%
3.02
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.15
1.07
Sudtirol xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.07 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sampdoria come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 11D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.30 PPG from 43 outings (15W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.30 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sampdoria's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.28 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 15W 11D 17L in their last 43 games (1.30 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 15W 11D 17L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Sudtirol away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.24 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
0
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 57%, Sudtirol 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sampdoria) and 52% (Sudtirol).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sampdoria's games and 67% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sampdoria's recent games and 52% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Sudtirol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Sudtirol 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.08 xG and Sudtirol 1.07 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.78 / defence 0.88 against Sudtirol attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 34% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 33%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 51%, Sudtirol 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Sudtirol's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.30 PPG, Sudtirol 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.