Salernitana 0-2 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salernitana and Bari meet at Stadio Arechi in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana at Stadio Arechi this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 8D 0L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Salernitana have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Salernitana — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bari — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Salernitana 58% and Bari 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 60% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 0.90 xG and Bari 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.910 / defence 1.247 | Bari attack 0.947 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.072. Data: 12 Salernitana games / 50 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 24% | Draw 33% | Bari 42%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Bari 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Salernitana 70% | Bari 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 24% | Draw 33% | Bari 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Salernitana 0.90 / Bari 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.910 / def 1.247 | Bari attack 0.947 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Bari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bari xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Bari kick off?
Salernitana vs Bari kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Bari?
Salernitana 0 - 2 Bari.
Where is Salernitana vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Bari part of?
Salernitana vs Bari is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 24% chance of winning, Bari a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Salernitana and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Bari in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Bari (all comps): 2W-8D-0L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Salernitana vs Bari?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.91x the league average against Bari's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.95x) against Salernitana's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
24%
4.14
33%
2.99
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.17
1.27
Bari xG
4.14
24%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.70
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.5 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.27 for Bari, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 5W 15D 30L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 10W 25D 15L from 50 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bari are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 0.62 PPG from 24 outings (3W 6D 15L).
On the road, Bari have gone 3W 11D 10L from 24 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.08 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Bari in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 5W 15D 30L in their last 50 games (0.60 PPG), while Bari have gone 10W 25D 15L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.62 PPG; Bari away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Salernitana
1
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Bari?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Bari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Bari 0-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 67%, Bari 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Salernitana) and 46% (Bari). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 33% of games; Bari in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Salernitana's games and 58% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Salernitana's matches and 46% of Bari's.
Do Salernitana and Bari tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bari in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Salernitana 0-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 0.90 xG and Bari 1.27 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salernitana fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Bari attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 24% | Draw 33% | Bari 42%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 60%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.