Reggiana 0-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Reggiana take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Modena at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggiana 1.00 PPG, Modena 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Reggiana have won 1, Modena 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Reggiana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 46% versus Modena 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 35% | Modena 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.05 xG and Modena 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.864 / defence 1.129 | Modena attack 0.837 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.102. Data: 54 Reggiana games / 54 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 33% | Draw 35% | Modena 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Modena 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 40% | Modena 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 33% | Draw 35% | Modena 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Reggiana 1.05 / Modena 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.864 / def 1.129 | Modena attack 0.837 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Modena xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Modena kick off?
Reggiana vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Modena?
Reggiana 0 - 1 Modena.
Where is Reggiana vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Modena part of?
Reggiana vs Modena is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 33% chance of winning, Modena a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Reggiana and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Reggiana 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Reggiana and Modena in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Modena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
35%
2.88
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.09
1.04
Modena xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.04 for Modena, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 23D 17L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.19 PPG from 54 outings (13W 25D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.20 PPG, Modena on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reggiana's home form reads 5W 14D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (4W 16D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.13 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Modena in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 14W 23D 17L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Modena have gone 13W 25D 16L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Modena away?
Reggiana's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.07 PPG; Modena away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Modena in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Reggiana's record when hosting Modena specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reggiana
0
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 3, Modena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Modena 2-1 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 52%, Modena 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Reggiana) and 44% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 30% of games; Modena in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Reggiana's games and 67% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Reggiana's recent games and 44% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Modena tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Modena in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Reggiana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Reggiana 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.05 xG and Modena 1.04 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Modena attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 33% | Draw 35% | Modena 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 35%, Modena 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.20 PPG, Modena 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.