Pisa 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 34 as Pisa welcome Cremonese to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 7W 1D 2L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cremonese's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.60 PPG versus Cremonese's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Pisa, 1 for Cremonese and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 3–1 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 63% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 55% | Cremonese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.44 xG and Cremonese 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.212 / defence 1.059 | Cremonese attack 1.268 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.160. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Pisa games / 75 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 34% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 34% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Pisa 1.44 / Cremonese 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.212 / def 1.059 | Cremonese attack 1.268 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Cremonese xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cremonese kick off?
Pisa vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Pisa 2 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Pisa vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cremonese part of?
Pisa vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 34% chance of winning, Cremonese a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pisa and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
Record (5 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.21x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
34%
2.92
26%
3.79
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Pisa xG
Total xG
3.00
1.56
Cremonese xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Pisa and 1.56 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 32W 21D 22L from 75 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 35W 23D 17L across 75 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.56 PPG, Cremonese on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 18W 12D 7L from 37 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 18W 10D 9L across 37 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.53 scored and 1.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 32W 21D 22L in their last 75 games (1.56 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 35W 23D 17L in their last 75 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cremonese away?
Pisa's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.78 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Pisa or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cremonese in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cremonese?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cremonese?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 70%, Cremonese 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Pisa and 57% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 32%; Cremonese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Pisa's games and 51% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Pisa's matches and 57% of Cremonese's.
Do Pisa and Cremonese tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Cremonese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cremonese 2-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.44 xG and Cremonese 1.56 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Cremonese attack 1.27 / defence 0.91, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 34% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Cremonese 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.56 PPG, Cremonese 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.