Perugia 1-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Perugia vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Perugia host Ascoli at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Perugia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia at Stadio Renato Curi this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ascoli have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Ascoli's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Perugia's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Perugia, 1 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Perugia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Perugia in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games).
Ascoli in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 51% versus Ascoli 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 33% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.09 xG and Ascoli 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.811 / defence 1.002 | Ascoli attack 1.225 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.121. Ascoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Perugia games / 42 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 30% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 43%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Ascoli 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 50% | Ascoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 30% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Perugia 1.09 / Ascoli 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.811 / def 1.002 | Ascoli attack 1.225 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ascoli xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Ascoli kick off?
Perugia vs Ascoli kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Ascoli?
Perugia 1 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Perugia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Ascoli part of?
Perugia vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 30% chance of winning, Ascoli a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Perugia and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Ascoli?
Record (2 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Perugia and Ascoli in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.81x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
30%
3.37
27%
3.72
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.46
1.38
Ascoli xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Perugia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Perugia and 1.38 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia's recent record stands at 14W 17D 12L from 43 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 12L across 43 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.37 PPG, Ascoli on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 6W 9D 5L from 20 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 12W 2D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.35 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 14W 17D 12L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.35 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Perugia or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ascoli in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Perugia's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Perugia
0
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Ascoli 1-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Perugia see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 45%, Ascoli 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Perugia and 50% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Perugia's recent matches and 55% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Perugia's recent games and 50% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Ascoli tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Perugia defy the odds to beat Ascoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Ascoli 1-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.09 xG and Ascoli 1.38 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Ascoli attack 1.23 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 30% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 43%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Perugia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 33%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ascoli's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.37 PPG, Ascoli 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.