Parma 3-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Parma welcome Palermo to Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Parma — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Parma's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palermo stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Parma carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Parma have won 1, Palermo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Parma 2–1 Palermo — a Parma win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 47% versus Palermo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | Palermo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.09 xG and Palermo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.148 / defence 0.784 | Palermo attack 1.071 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.126. Parma have a tight defence (rating 0.784), which is pulling Palermo's projected output down. Data: built from Parma's last 53 games and Palermo's last 53.
Result probabilities: Parma 37% | Draw 33% | Palermo 30%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.68 | Draw 3.03 | Palermo 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Parma 50% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 37% | Draw 33% | Palermo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Parma 1.09 / Palermo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.148 / def 0.784 | Palermo attack 1.071 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Parma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Palermo xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Parma vs Palermo kick off?
Parma vs Palermo kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Palermo?
Parma 3 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Parma vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Palermo part of?
Parma vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 37% chance of winning, Palermo a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Parma and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Parma vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 53 games and Palermo's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.03
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Parma xG
Total xG
2.03
0.94
Palermo xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Parma and 0.94 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 27W 12D 14L from 53 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 16L across 53 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.75 PPG, Palermo on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 15W 5D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 7W 10D 9L across their last 26 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Palermo
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Parma vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Palermo in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 27W 12D 14L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Palermo have gone 18W 19D 16L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Palermo away?
Parma's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.92 PPG; Palermo away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Parma or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Palermo in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Parma's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Palermo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2024: Palermo 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 42%, Palermo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Parma) and 42% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Palermo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Parma's recent matches and 62% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Parma's recent games and 42% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Parma's recent matches and 77% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Palermo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Palermo finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.09 xG and Palermo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.15 / defence 0.78 against Palermo attack 1.07 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 37% | Draw 33% | Palermo 30%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, Palermo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.75 PPG, Palermo 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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