Como 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Como face Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia plays host to Como versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Como (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Como at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Modena have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Como, 1.50 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Como's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) — Como have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Modena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended Como 1–0 Modena — a Como win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Como goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 51% versus Modena 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 40% | Modena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 0.95 xG and Modena 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.971 / defence 0.925 | Modena attack 0.977 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.126. Data: built from Como's last 53 games and Modena's last 53.
Result probabilities: Como 31% | Draw 34% | Modena 35%. Fair-value odds: Como 3.19 | Draw 2.97 | Modena 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Como 70% (last 10 home games) | Modena 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 31% | Draw 34% | Modena 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Como 0.95 / Modena 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.971 / def 0.925 | Modena attack 0.977 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Modena (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Modena xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Como vs Modena FAQs
What time does Como vs Modena kick off?
Como vs Modena kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Modena?
Como 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Como vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Modena part of?
Como vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Como a 31% chance of winning, Modena a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Como and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Como vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Como's attack rating (0.97) and Modena's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.98x) against Como's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Como's last 53 games and Modena's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
31%
3.19
34%
2.97
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Como xG
Total xG
1.97
1.02
Modena xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Como vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Como and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Como and 1.02 for Modena, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Como's recent record stands at 18W 21D 14L from 53 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 19L across 53 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Como against 1.40 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Como have managed 12W 9D 5L from their last 26 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.19 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Modena
Blended
Como (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Como
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Como vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Como and Modena in coming into this match?
Como have gone 18W 21D 14L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while Modena have gone 20W 14D 19L in their last 53 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Modena away?
Como's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.73 PPG; Modena away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Como or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Modena in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won Modena 5-1 Como on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Como
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Como vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Modena?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Como have won 2, Modena have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Como and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2024: Modena 0-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Modena?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 54%, Modena 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Como) and 54% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Como vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Como and Modena matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Como's games and 62% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Como and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Como's recent games and 54% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Como's recent matches and 65% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 0.95 xG and Modena 1.02 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Modena attack 0.98 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 31% | Draw 34% | Modena 35%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 40%, Modena 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.42 PPG, Modena 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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