Parma 2-0 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Parma face Feralpisalo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Parma welcome Feralpisalo to Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 20 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Parma at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.51 xG and Feralpisalo 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.051 / defence 0.920 | Feralpisalo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.069. Data: built from Parma's last 38 games and Feralpisalo's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Parma 51% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 18%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.96 | Draw 3.26 | Feralpisalo 5.44. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Parma 38 games, Feralpisalo 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 51% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Parma 1.51 / Feralpisalo 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.051 / def 0.920 | Feralpisalo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Parma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Feralpisalo xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Feralpisalo FAQs
What time does Parma vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Parma vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Parma 2 - 0 Feralpisalo.
Where is Parma vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Feralpisalo part of?
Parma vs Feralpisalo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 1) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 51% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Parma and Feralpisalo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Parma vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.05x the league average against Feralpisalo's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 38 games and Feralpisalo's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
51%
1.96
31%
3.26
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Parma xG
Total xG
2.35
0.84
Feralpisalo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Feralpisalo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Parma and 0.84 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Pre-Season
Feralpisalo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Parma (Home) vs Feralpisalo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Pre-Season
Feralpisalo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Parma
0
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Feralpisalo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Feralpisalo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 2, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Feralpisalo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Feralpisalo 1-2 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Feralpisalo?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Feralpisalo 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.51 xG and Feralpisalo 0.84 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Feralpisalo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Feralpisalo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 51% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 18%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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