Parma 2-0 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Feralpisalo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 1 as Parma welcome Feralpisalo to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Parma haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ennio Tardini. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.51 xG and Feralpisalo 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.051 / defence 0.920 | Feralpisalo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.069. Data: 38 Parma games / 0 Feralpisalo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Parma 51% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 18%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Feralpisalo 5.56. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 51% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Parma 1.51 / Feralpisalo 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.051 / def 0.920 | Feralpisalo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Parma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Feralpisalo xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Parma vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Parma 2 - 0 Feralpisalo.
Where is Parma vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Feralpisalo part of?
Parma vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 51% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Parma and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Feralpisalo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Feralpisalo in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.05x the league average against Feralpisalo's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
51%
1.96
31%
3.26
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Parma xG
Total xG
2.35
0.84
Feralpisalo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Parma and 0.84 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Pre-Season
Feralpisalo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Feralpisalo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Parma
0
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Feralpisalo 1-2 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Feralpisalo?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Feralpisalo 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.51 xG and Feralpisalo 0.84 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Feralpisalo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Feralpisalo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 51% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 18%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.