Cremonese 0-0 Catanzaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Catanzaro.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Catanzaro travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cremonese's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.27 xG and Catanzaro 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Catanzaro attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.035. Data: built from Cremonese's last 0 games and Catanzaro's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Catanzaro 27%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.50 | Draw 3.06 | Catanzaro 3.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Cremonese 0 games, Catanzaro 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Catanzaro | Competition: Serie B, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Catanzaro 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Cremonese 1.27 / Catanzaro 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Catanzaro attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Catanzaro xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Catanzaro FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Catanzaro kick off?
Cremonese vs Catanzaro kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Catanzaro?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Catanzaro.
Where is Cremonese vs Catanzaro being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Catanzaro part of?
Cremonese vs Catanzaro is a Serie B fixture (matchday 1) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Catanzaro?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 40% chance of winning, Catanzaro a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Catanzaro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cremonese and Catanzaro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Cremonese vs Catanzaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Catanzaro's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Catanzaro's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 0 games and Catanzaro's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.06
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.28
1.01
Catanzaro xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Catanzaro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Catanzaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Catanzaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.01 for Catanzaro, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Catanzaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Pre-Season
Catanzaro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Cremonese (Home) vs Catanzaro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Pre-Season
Catanzaro
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Mar 2025, when Cremonese won Cremonese 4-0 Catanzaro.
Cremonese's record when hosting Catanzaro specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cremonese
3
Draws
0
Catanzaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Catanzaro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Catanzaro?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 3, Catanzaro have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Catanzaro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Cremonese 4-0 Catanzaro.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Catanzaro?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Catanzaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Catanzaro finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.27 xG and Catanzaro 1.01 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Catanzaro landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Catanzaro attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Catanzaro 27%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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