Parma 2-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Parma take on Como.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Como make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 20 October 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Como (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Parma, 1 for Como and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Como half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 46% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 41% | Como 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.15 xG and Como 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.103 / defence 0.770 | Como attack 1.030 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.192. Parma's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Parma games / 46 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 36% | Draw 38% | Como 26%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Como 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 50% | Como 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 36% | Draw 38% | Como 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Parma 1.15 / Como 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.103 / def 0.770 | Como attack 1.030 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Como xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Como kick off?
Parma vs Como kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Como?
Parma 2 - 1 Como.
Where is Parma vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Como part of?
Parma vs Como is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 36% chance of winning, Como a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Como?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Parma and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Como?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 2W | Draws 0 | Como 1W.
What form are Parma and Como in?
Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Como (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.10) and Como's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.03x) against Parma's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
38%
2.66
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Parma xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Como xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Parma and 0.95 for Como, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 11D 13L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.33 PPG from 46 outings (14W 19D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Parma against 1.33 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Parma's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (4W 11D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Como in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 22W 11D 13L in their last 46 games (1.67 PPG), while Como have gone 14W 19D 13L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Como away?
Parma's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.87 PPG; Como away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Parma or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Como in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Como have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Parma
3
Draws
4
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Como?
From 10 meetings on record, Parma have won 3, Como have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Como last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Como 2-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 39%, Como 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Parma) and 44% (Como).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Como in 35%; Parma have failed to score in 30% of games; Como in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Parma's recent matches and 48% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Parma's recent games and 44% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Como tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Como in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Como 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Como 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.15 xG and Como 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Como attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 36% | Draw 38% | Como 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 41%, Como 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.67 PPG, Como 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.