Palermo vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Palermo carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palermo, 3 for Pisa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Pisa trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 40% versus Pisa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 45% | Pisa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.73 xG and Pisa 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.114 / defence 0.796 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Palermo's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Palermo games / 2 Pisa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palermo 59% | Draw 25% | Pisa 16%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Pisa 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Pisa lead the H2H ledger, but Palermo carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 59% | Draw 25% | Pisa 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Palermo 1.73 / Pisa 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.114 / def 0.796 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Palermo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Pisa kick off?
Palermo vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Pisa part of?
Palermo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 59% chance of winning, Pisa a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Palermo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
Record (6 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 2 | Pisa 3W.
What form are Palermo and Pisa in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.11x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
59%
1.71
25%
3.93
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.53
0.80
Pisa xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
3%
35.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Palermo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Palermo and 0.80 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 22W 11D 7L from 40 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 3W 12D 25L across 40 games — 0.52 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 15W 3D 1L from 19 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 0W 8D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.70 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 22W 11D 7L in their last 40 games (1.92 PPG), while Pisa have gone 3W 12D 25L in their last 40 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Pisa away?
Palermo's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.53 PPG; Pisa away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Palermo or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Pisa in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Palermo's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Palermo
2
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Palermo 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 26%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palermo) and 68% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; Pisa in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Palermo's recent matches and 53% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Palermo's matches and 68% of Pisa's.
Do Palermo and Pisa tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.