Palermo 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Palermo take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Modena at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Modena — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.90 PPG, Modena 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Palermo have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Modena have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Palermo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palermo and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Modena in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 56% versus Modena 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 44% | Modena 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 0.92 xG and Modena 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.907 / defence 0.752 | Modena attack 1.095 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.099. Modena's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palermo's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Palermo games / 45 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 30% | Draw 41% | Modena 29%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.33 | Draw 2.44 | Modena 3.45. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 50% | Modena 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 30% | Draw 41% | Modena 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Palermo 0.92 / Modena 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.907 / def 0.752 | Modena attack 1.095 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Modena xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Modena kick off?
Palermo vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Modena?
Palermo 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Palermo vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Modena part of?
Palermo vs Modena is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 30% chance of winning, Modena a 29% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palermo and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
Record (6 meetings): Palermo 5W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Palermo and Modena in?
Palermo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Modena (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.91) and Modena's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.31
41%
2.46
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.83
0.91
Modena xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 14.5 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Palermo and 0.91 for Modena, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 18W 13D 14L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena's form line: 15W 17D 13L from 45 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.49 PPG, Modena on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.64 PPG from 22 outings (10W 6D 6L).
On the road, Modena have gone 6W 8D 8L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.36 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Modena in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 18W 13D 14L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Modena have gone 15W 17D 13L in their last 45 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Modena away?
Palermo's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.64 PPG; Modena away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Palermo or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Modena in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Modena specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Modena have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Modena?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 41%, Modena 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Palermo) and 46% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Modena in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Palermo's recent matches and 54% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Palermo's recent games and 46% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Modena tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Modena in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo and Modena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.92 xG and Modena 0.91 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.91 / defence 0.75 against Modena attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 30% | Draw 41% | Modena 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 44%, Modena 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.49 PPG, Modena 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.