Palermo vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Palermo welcome Mantova to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Palermo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palermo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mantova in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Palermo, 0 for Mantova and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 2–0 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Mantova in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 50% versus Mantova 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 50% | Mantova 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.44 xG and Mantova 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.329 / defence 0.891 | Mantova attack 1.062 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Palermo games / 48 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 42% | Draw 30% | Mantova 29%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Mantova 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 60% | Mantova 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 42% | Draw 30% | Mantova 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Palermo 1.44 / Mantova 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.329 / def 0.891 | Mantova attack 1.062 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Palermo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Mantova xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Mantova kick off?
Palermo vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Mantova part of?
Palermo vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 42% chance of winning, Mantova a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Palermo and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
Record (5 meetings): Palermo 2W | Draws 3 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Palermo and Mantova in?
Palermo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Mantova (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.33) and Mantova's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
42%
2.41
30%
3.36
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
Mantova xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
7%
14.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Palermo and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Palermo and 1.17 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 27W 14D 7L from 48 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 20L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 19W 3D 1L from 23 games — 2.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mantova's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Mantova in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 27W 14D 7L in their last 48 games (1.98 PPG), while Mantova have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Mantova away?
Palermo's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.61 PPG; Mantova away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Palermo or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mantova in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Palermo's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
From 5 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Mantova have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Mantova 0-2 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Mantova?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 39%, Mantova 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Palermo) and 52% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Mantova in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Palermo's recent matches and 48% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Palermo's recent games and 52% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Mantova tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Mantova in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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